It’s always a good time to talk about the weather! You don’t need a special occasion to bring it up. It’s like a classic topic that never gets old. In fact, a famous British weather enthusiast once said, “London weather isn’t bad; you just haven’t dressed for it.”
He might have been inspired by John Ruskin, a 19th-century British art critic who wrote, “There’s no such thing as bad weather, just different kinds of good weather.” And who can argue with Rachel Carson’s beautiful sentiment: “A rainy day is the perfect time for a walk in the woods.”
Our Fascination with Forecasting
Now, before we dive into the big debate about climate change, let’s just take a step back and enjoy the simple pleasures of the weather. As Mark Twain aptly put it, “Climate is what we expect, weather is what we get.”
Weather itself is a fascinating topic. Some of us enjoy talking about it, while others find it boring. But there’s no denying our collective obsession with weather forecasting. What is it about the weather that keeps us so captivated?
Is Weather Talk Just Small Talk?
Some people think talking about the weather is just a way to fill the silence, a bit like a conversation about the price of bread or how the traffic was this morning. They might say it’s the “last refuge of the unimaginative,” as Oscar Wilde once quipped.
Others think it’s just a social lubricant, a way to break the ice. Indiana humorist Kin Hubbard said, “Don’t knock the weather. If it didn’t change once in a while, 9 out of 10 people couldn’t start a conversation.”
But perhaps the most hurtful statement to weather enthusiasts came from the cynical pen of 18th-century British physician, Thomas Fuller: “Change of weather is the discourse of fools.”
Hey, there’s nothing wrong with enjoying a good weather conversation! It’s a healthy way to express our feelings about the elements and, let’s be honest, to complain a little.
The Paradox of Weather Forecasts
But even if we enjoy discussing the weather, are we truly wise to put our faith in weather forecasts? Every day, billions of people around the globe check the forecast, not just for the day but for the week ahead!
My cousin Steve, a meteorologist, says “nowcasting” – forecasting for the very near future – is the only truly reliable type of weather report. He explains that studies have shown that predicting tomorrow’s weather will be the same as today’s is actually more likely to be accurate than any other prediction. So why do we keep checking those long-range forecasts?
Patrick Young put it this way: “The trouble with weather forecasting is that it’s right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it.”
The Unreliability of Long-Range Forecasts
The next time you’re tempted to check the 10-day forecast, try a little experiment. Tape those predictions to your refrigerator each day for a week, then compare what actually happened with the forecast. You’ll see that those forecasts are about as reliable as a coin toss.
Think about it. Wild animals that based their survival on long-range weather predictions would have long ago disappeared from the planet. Their descendants wouldn’t be here today! So why do we, as humans, still fall for those long-range forecasts, even though we know they’re usually wrong?
Maybe it’s just a little bit of hope, a desire to plan ahead, or perhaps, like me, we’re just looking for the perfect day to take a walk in the woods.
